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<DIV><FONT size=4>John</FONT></DIV>
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<DIV><FONT size=4>If we keep having major wrecks of so-called crude oil trains,
the price may go up and make Bakken, et. al., uncompetitive.</FONT></DIV>
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<DIV><FONT size=4>Dwight</FONT></DIV>
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<DIV style="font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A title=j_swindler@hotmail.com
href="mailto:j_swindler@hotmail.com">John Swindler</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, 13 November, 2013 01:36</DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=fwschneider@comcast.net
href="mailto:fwschneider@comcast.net">Fred Schneider</A> ; <A
title=pittsburgh-railways@mailman.dementix.org
href="mailto:pittsburgh-railways@mailman.dementix.org">Western PA Trolley
discussion</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: [PRCo] Response to Calgary vs Pittsburgh ... and on to
London (part 1)</DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV>
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<DIV
style='FONT-SIZE: small; TEXT-DECORATION: none; FONT-FAMILY: "Calibri"; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: #000000; FONT-STYLE: normal; DISPLAY: inline'><BR> <BR>You
might as well delete the U.S. Virgin Island numbers. The large oil
refinery that processed crude from Venezuela closed down in 2011. No
longer competitive with U.S. mainland. It's on the south shore of St.
Croix.<BR> <BR> <BR><BR> <BR>From:
fwschneider@comcast.net<BR>Subject: Re: [PRCo] Response to Calgary vs Pittsburgh
... and on to London (part 1)<BR>Date: Tue, 12 Nov 2013 22:23:04 -0500<BR>To:
pittsburgh-railways@mailman.dementix.org; j_swindler@hotmail.com<BR><BR>You are
not going to get 2013 data in 2013. Wait a year or two. I am
attaching an excel file that I created several years ago showing motor vehicle
registrations and oil consumption per capita for different nations.
It's five years old but will give you an idea that our consumption is about
double that of European nations per person. Furthermore, that
consumption is total divided by people. Therefore, part of our oil
consumption will appear in other countries. If oil was used in
Mexico to build my Volkswagen, it will appear as used by Mexicans and not by
me. Got it? The Chinese consumption that was 1/10th per
person what we use included some that might have gone into producing goods for
sale to the USA (at least the plastic resins … suspect a lot of energy came from
coal). By the same token, oil used to produce wheat that we sell overseas
would appear in the USA. <BR> <BR><BR>On Nov 12,
2013, at 11:13 AM, John Swindler wrote:<BR><BR>> <BR>> <BR>> So how
much of the world's oil do the Germans consume, and how much do they
produce?? What about Japan?? Or China?? Or Italy?? Or
France?? <BR>> <BR>> And how does that compare with U.S. - not in
2009 or 2010, but in 2013. <BR>> <BR>> <BR>> <BR>>> From:
fwschneider@comcast.net<BR>>> Date: Mon, 11 Nov 2013 22:39:50
-0500<BR>>> To: pittsburgh-railways@mailman.dementix.org<BR>>>
Subject: [PRCo] Response to Calgary vs Pittsburgh ... and on to London (part
1)<BR>>> <BR>>> I don't have a problem with huge metro area
cities. We've tried it in a few places but the last truly large city
to merge with the surrounding county was Philadelphia City/County and that was
about 100 years ago and it really needs to merge today with about eight more
counties in three states to restore the balance. Other examples
would be Louisville and Nashville which merged with their surrounding
counties. But we do not do it enough because the suburbanites don't
want to be part of helping anyone different.<BR>>> <BR>>> But then,
Herb, if you wish to look at the entire regional picture...<BR>>>
<BR>>> Well, then, that would make the Pittsburgh population about 1.2
million � about the same as Calgary so PAT, using the same logic should be
hauling about 600,000 daily riders. Correct? They handle
about 215,000 �. about 1/3rd of what the same size city in Canada would
generate. <BR>>> <BR>>> I wish I had similar data for
European or Chinese or Indian cities to share. Might be a real
revelation. <BR>>> <BR>>> The scary thing to me is how
much oil we use up using our cars and living 10 or 20 or even 100 miles from our
jobs while the people in more sensible countries are willing to live much closer
to work.<BR>>> <BR>>> Consider these factoids:
<BR>>> <BR>>> If we are talking proven
supply, we have about 1.57% of the world's oil. A friend of mine who
kept close tabs on it<BR>>> claimed we had a
pretty good idea of most of the world's supply except for Russia and they played
their numbers <BR>>> close to the
vest. Sometime early in the 21st century the supply curve should
peak and begin to decline while the <BR>>> demand
curve will continue to grow � good reason for another war. You have;
we want.<BR>>> <BR>>> We are producing 9.97%
of of the world's oil. (9.9 million barrels a day) That
shows if we have less than 2% of the<BR>>> oil and
we are producing 10% it, we are using up what we have at one hellish
rate. Part of that is fracking, or as
one<BR>>> person put it, "sweeping the dust out
the corners of an empty room." <BR>>>
<BR>>> Consumption? We use up 20.5% of
the world's oil consumption (every day --- around 20 million
barrels). <BR>>> Last time I
researched it, the only major nation that used more oil per capita than us was
Canada, and<BR>>> they need a lot more for heating
because their average person lives a lot farther north than most of our
people.<BR>>> So we pump 10 millions out of the
ground and use 20 million every day. Duh. How long is
this going last <BR>>> without another
war? <BR>>> <BR>>> I remember, guys, when the army put
me in Germany back in 1959-1961, the average German had no
automobile. Only the very rich and those who needed one in business
like a doctor or the plant supervisor or a salesman might have had access to a
car. A buddy of mine from the local NRHS chapter � and this goes back to
when I was in high school � described the train service in Britain in 1957 and
1958 as intensive as it was here in the 1930s.
Why? Because Europe had two back-to-back world wars and the
important thing was to rebuild the homes and infrastructure first, not worry
about unimportant things like cars, radios, refrigerators, televisions.
England had food rationing from World War II right up to 1954, then it hit them
again in the Suez conflict in 1958. So automobiles were not important in
the 1940s and 1950s � eating was. Those luxury things came in the
1960s and 1970s. But even so, the last time I checked, the average
commuting to work in the US was about 1 percent by public transportation but in
Germany it was still around 30% in the beginning of the 21st
century. <BR>>> <BR>>> Now I am going to admit that
sometimes when you try to prove a point, you can't do it. Or
perhaps you cannot find what you want to make an issue or a statement or you
can't bark quite as loudly as you want with the facts at hand.
I started trying to prove how many people were hauled by public transport in a
place like London, England by the subways compared to New York City.
I thought I could prove that as wedded to public transport New York is, London
is even more so. It turned into one of those o shit moments.
It turned out that London is more so but not far far more like I
thought. London and New York are both cities of about 8.3 million
people. The populations are comparable. So I would have
expected the transit in London to haul the same or more, especially because
London has a congestion tax if you are dumb enough to drive a car
there.<BR>>> <BR>>> Well I found 2.540 billion annual subway riders
in New York and only 1.230 billion annual riders on the Underground in
London. What? Even if I add in the Docklands light rail
(300,000 a day), I only kick it up to 1.300 billion a year. Can that
be right? Then the light dawned. I'm missing half the
city of London. The tube services only the north side.
If you want to go to the south side, that is the preserve of the commuter
railroads. <BR>>> <BR>>> Then another light dawned �
London's buses haul 6 million riders on a weekday compared to 2.6 million in New
York � <BR>>> <BR>>> So even without the commuter rail on the south
side of London, we are now up to 3.32 billion transit users in London and 3.1
billion in New York.<BR>>> <BR>>> Using another source to derive the
commuter train passengers suggests we might have around 3.6 million public
transport commuters in the inner sectors of London compared to 3.1 billion in
New York �. in one year. The bus and rail riders coming into the
capital outnumber the auto passengers by almost 2 to 1. The transit
passengers are climbing and the auto riders are dropping. <BR>>>
What the s**t are we doing wrong???? <BR>>> <BR>>> BUT
WITH ALL MODES, WE STILL HAVE AROUND 72% OF THE PEOPLE WHO LIVE IN LONDON USING
MASS TRANSIT ON WEEKDAYS AND 62% IN NEW YORK CITY ASSUMING THE SAME SHARE OF THE
RIDING IS ON WEEKDAYS. (I divided the annual total by 300 to get
weekdays.) And for PAT's service area? It's less than
less than 1 percent. So Herb, I am really less than impressed with
Brownsville Road or Fifth or Brighton or Murray. We still have
99% of the public using their cars in Allegheny County. We're still
trying desperately to use up the world's oil.<BR>>>
<BR>>>
http://londontransportdata.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/weekday-morning-peak-travel-into-central-london.png<BR>>>
<BR>>> <BR>>> On Nov 9, 2013, at 5:56 PM, Herb Brannon
wrote:<BR>>> <BR>>>> Canadian cities are just about all on a
"metropolitan area" government. No<BR>>>> suburbs, just one big city,
hence larger population figures. Something the<BR>>>> US missed
the boat on...............oh dear, such "Thoughts of Socialism"<BR>>>>
coming from my mouth.<BR>>>> <BR>>>> As far as "crowds
boarding buses at every corner", you apparently haven't<BR>>>> been
along Brownsville Road, Fifth Avenue, Brighton Road or Forbes
and<BR>>>> Murray Avenues in Pittsburgh lately. Same thing every
weekday/.<BR>>>> <BR>>>> <BR>>>> On Sat, Nov 9, 2013
at 5:19 PM, Fred Schneider wrote:<BR>>>> <BR>>>>> Ah, but
the Canadians live a much more compact live than the people
south<BR>>>>> of you.<BR>>>>> <BR>>>>> Up
north you don't have this same concept that I'm better than Jose so
I<BR>>>>> must live in a 3,000 square foot house on a 3 acre lot in
a gated<BR>>>>> community. Even in small towns you can
have bus service which would be<BR>>>>> impossible in the USA
because people still live in smaller homes lined up<BR>>>>> along
streets. Maybe it comes from the idea that it costs money to
heat<BR>>>>> a 3,000 square foot house so that a 1,000 square foot
house using the<BR>>>>> neighbor's property as a wind break is a
better deal.<BR>>>>> <BR>>>>> Example, the bus system in
your provincial capital hauled 28 million<BR>>>>> riders last
year. That's around 11,000 on a weekday. BARTA in
Reading,<BR>>>>> PA had 3 million. Both cities have
around 80,000 population. I remember<BR>>>>> standing
downtown in Victoria BC in the evening rush hour in 2007 �
crowds<BR>>>>> boarding buses at every corner. Unreal by
US standards.<BR>>>>> <BR>>>>> And you guys want a real
jolt? Calgary, Alberta has a population of<BR>>>>> about
1.1 million. Their total system ridership is about 548,000
fares<BR>>>>> (considering we need to ride in and out every day,
that's one out of every<BR>>>>> four Calgarians rides mass
transit). And 285,000 a day are on light rail<BR>>>>>
trains!!!!!! That is the second highest light rail riding in
North<BR>>>>> America. Yeah � go to Montana � middle of
no where � turn right and go up<BR>>>>> the front range about 150
miles.<BR>>>>> <BR>>>>> <BR>>>>>
<BR>>>>> On Nov 9, 2013, at 2:42 PM, TEP wrote:<BR>>>>>
<BR>>>>>> <BR>>>>>> On 09/11/2013 09:22, Herb
Brannon wrote:<BR>>>>>>>
...........<BR>>>>>>> One the cloudy side, why doesn't
PATransit try to get money to extend<BR>>>>>
some<BR>>>>>>> of the Pittsburgh lines? The PAT management
doesn't seem too interested<BR>>>>> in<BR>>>>>>>
running a good transit system. Service levels are no where near
what<BR>>>>> they<BR>>>>>>> were when I worked at
PAT.......<BR>>>>>>> <BR>>>>>>
<BR>>>>>> Because capital and operating subsidies come from
different pockets. PAT<BR>>>>>> could build all it wants--but
have no money to operate any new lines--or<BR>>>>>> the existing
lines for that matter.<BR>>>>>> <BR>>>>>> I live
in Vancouver. The Urban area is around the same population
as<BR>>>>>> Greater Pittsburgh. Our three rail lines carry half a
million passengers<BR>>>>>> a day. Peak headways down to four and
six car trains every ninety<BR>>>>>> seconds. Service at least
every five minutes until 1:15 am. Plus the 5<BR>>>>>> train peak
only commuter rail. Use it or lose it.<BR>>>>>>
<BR>>>>>> Tom Parkinson<BR>>>>>>
<BR>>>>>> ADVISORY: The Telus spam filters may block legitimate
email<BR>>>>>> <BR>>>>>>
*Transport****Consulting**Limited *<BR>>>>>>
<BR>>>>>> Tom Parkinson P.Eng, Vancouver BC Canada 604-733-5430,
cell 604-733-5437<BR>>>>>> <BR>>>>>>
<BR>>>>>> <BR>>>>>> <BR>>>>>>
_______________________________________________<BR>>>>>>
Pittsburgh-railways mailing list<BR>>>>>>
Pittsburgh-railways@mailman.dementix.org<BR>>>>>>
https://mailman.dementix.org/mailman/listinfo/pittsburgh-railways<BR>>>>>
<BR>>>>> <BR>>>>> <BR>>>>>
<BR>>>>> <BR>>>>>
_______________________________________________<BR>>>>>
Pittsburgh-railways mailing list<BR>>>>>
Pittsburgh-railways@mailman.dementix.org<BR>>>>>
https://mailman.dementix.org/mailman/listinfo/pittsburgh-railways<BR>>>>>
<BR>>>> <BR>>>> <BR>>>> <BR>>>> --
<BR>>>> Herb Brannon<BR>>>> *In Pittsburgh...*<BR>>>>
*......the Greatest City In The U.S.*<BR>>>> Let's Go
Pens<BR>>>> Let's Go Steelers<BR>>>> <BR>>>>
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