[milwaukee-electric] Re: Who is Tom Rubin, and what exactly is the 'Reason Institute'?

[Y Marti]

It's hard to come up with an accurate economic analysis in these times when prices fluctuate so greatly. Six months ago when the study was done, prices were at an all time high, especially for fuel costs. If he couldn't come up with figures that would show lower costs for a mass-transit system vs a longer distance bus route, then his math must be extremely poor.

BTW, the study can be found here:

http://www.reason.org/ps372.pdf

Looking at the Executive Summary of the report, it is apparent his math is suspect when he thinks that 4,817 is 65% of 7,392 passengers in 2035. Then he goes on to say:

If we assume that each year 2035 rider makes
a round-trip, that would mean that there are 3,696
daily round-trip riders. So, if we divide the $2.1 billion
?10%? increase in property values by those 3,696
commuter rail travelers, we find that each and every
one of them will cause an increase in property values of
about $568,000 in that one-mile corridor. This is obviously
far-fetched, particularly when one considers that
many of the 3,696 will neither live nor work within this
one-mile corridor, these being the primary types of real
estate where commuter rail access and the presence
of commuter rail riders could be expected to have an
impact.
 Well what happened to the 7,392 riders? Heh, and the property value increase is not based solely on passenger residences but on businesses which support them and their needs. And he calls his organization the "Reason Institute"??? There is so much wrong with his report it should be laughed out of existence. Hopefully the Journal Sentinel will use reason when analyzing the report...

> ANTI-RAIL "REASON INSTITUTE" FUNDED BY OIL & AUTO COMPANIES.
>
> A new anti-KRM Line report from a California-based group calling
> itself the Reason Institute has garnered much publicity over the past
> several days in area newspapers. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
> called the Reason Institute a "libertarian think tank (that) claims
> the projected economic benefits of a proposed Milwaukee-to-Kenosha
> commuter rail line have been inflated and questions its ridership
> estimates."
> But the author of that study is Los Angeles-based Tom Rubin, who had
> taken a far more positive view of the $200 million project back last
> June, when pro-transit business leaders were pushing the Southeastern
> Wisconsin Regional Transit Authority to hire him as the authority's
> consultant. Rubin almost was hired, too, except for one anti-Rubin
> veto vote from Len Brandrup, director of Kenosha Area Transit and the
> Kenosha RTA representative member, enough to stop Rubin's hopes of
> employment here.
>
> That Reason Foundation release said the transit authority should
> instead consider express buses as an alternative to the KRM Commuter
> Link, which would connect downtown Milwaukee and the southern suburbs
> to Racine and Kenosha with 14 round trips each weekday. Rubin says
> his latest study was meant to illustrate the advantages of bus
> options. Rubin said on Monday, December 15th. "I am not saying that
> KRM is going to fail. I am saying there are other options that should
> be studied before you make that commitment."
>
> A University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee study projects property values
> would rise 10%, or $2.1 billion, along the rail route. Rubin disputed
> that in his release, but Ken Yunker, deputy director of the
> Southeastern Wisconsin Regional Planning Commission, said the UWM
> figures were based on development along other commuter rail lines,
> including Chicago-area Metra routes that carry fewer riders than
> KRM's projected 1.7 million a year.
>
> Rubin argues with KRM ridership forecasts, saying that either the
> ridership is overestimated or the service wouldn't be enough to handle
> all the riders. Yunker says the projections had been extensively
> reviewed and approved by federal transit officials.
>
> Rubin argues that KRM planners haven't considered express buses on I-
> 94 and urged consideration of that option, which he said would better
> serve riders farther from the Milwaukee, Racine and Kenosha downtowns.
>
> But back in June - when Rubin had already been paid $30,000 by the
> Milwaukee 7 regional development alliance and was seeking a $50,000
> contract from the regional transit authority - Rubin said the KRM
> would work better than any bus alternative because it would serve
> Kenosha, Racine and other lakefront communities that are miles from I-
> 94. The new study concedes that distance would be a disadvantage for
> I-94 buses.
>
> Six months ago, some business leaders supported hiring Rubin, saying
> that Rubin's anti-rail views would give the transit authority more
> credibility among Republicans who then controlled the Assembly. But
> then Len Brandrup's 'No' vote stopped Rubin from getting hired by
> stopping the RTA's seven-member board from mustering the required six-
> vote supermajority to hire him. (That story received coverage on WLIP
> News.)
>
> Rubin's December 15th release is more consistent with his previous
> work and other Reason Foundation releases, which typically oppose
> light rail and commuter trains and push buses instead.
> A look into the Reason Foundation's 1999 annual report brought the
> annotations that its main corporate donors that year included the
> American Petroleum Institute, ARCO Foundation, BP Amoco, Chevron
> Corporation, American Airlines, Continental Airlines, Daimler Chrysler
> Corp., ENRON, Exxon Mobil, FMC Corporation, Ford Motor Company,
> General Motors, National Air Transportation Association, Shell Oil,
> Sun America, United Airlines, and Western States Petroleum.
> Pete Beitzel, a vice president of the Metropolitan Milwaukee
> Association of Commerce, suggested Rubin's opinions depended on who
> was paying him.
>
> Rubin denies that, saying this latest release was based on careful
> study and that the earlier work was a study of Milwaukee County
> Transit System finances that touched on the KRM, and this study
> focused on the KRM. "The think tank guys got real mad at him when he
> said it (the KRM line) was a good idea," Beitzel said. "Apparently,
> they hired him to change his mind."
>
> --- End forwarded message ---
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