[PRCo] Revenue___Stream

[Jim Holland]

Good Morning!

> John Swindler wrote:

> Everyone wants a blank check.

> In all the babble about fare increases and service
> reductions, no one - not in Pittsburgh nor in any other
> cities - has bothered to ask the question:
> so what was my local transit company doing
> during the economic good times (high tax
> revenues) of the late 1990s??

	OH  YES  I  HAVE!!    I  HAVE  asked top Management that Very
Question  AND  put it in writing to them as well.
	THE  top management was at the Division to explain the latest
budget cuts.    It is  NO  Secret that history reveals Both
Booms and Busts.    Part of the job of Management is to Be
Good Scouts and to Be Prepared for Both Boom and Bust.    What
did they do with all that revenue in the boom times  --  did
they put some aside for a rainy day?
	My question takes a different tone from yours    ----    but
nevertheless a valid one!:)

> Let's see if this website works.  It's in adobe.

http://www.budget.state.pa.us/budget/lib/budget/2003-2004/2003_04budgetslides.pdf

> I was surprised at drop in corporate taxes past couple
> years.    And even personal income taxes dropped two years
> ago.    It's not a case or reallocating a growing pot of
> money.    It's a fight over a shrinking pot of money. 
> And it looks like education and medical assistance
> might be coming out ahead in that fight.

	I Am Surprized that No One expected a drop in taxes let alone
not seeing the same.    Dow Theory  CONFIRMED  a Bear Market
in  APRIL--2000    ----    That is  THREE--(3)--YEARS  Ago   
----    and we are still in the same Bear Market.    This
means a bad economy is on the way.

	What follows is a description of this confirmation of the Dow
with supporting evidence and this may not be of interest to
all (but it  DOES  affect transit  --  and EveryThing
Else!)    Posted to another newsgroup already.

	Dow Theory uses the Industrial and Transport Averages to
determine Bull and Bear markets.    Dow Theory is First About
Values and then about Price movement and works on the basis
that the Goods produced by the Industrials must be moved by
the Transports and the two Averages must then work in
Harmony.    Each new Peak in one Average must be confirmed by
the other, upside or downside.    An oversimplification, but a
thumbnail description of the process.

IMPORTANT---NOTE:::	Dow Theory Reveals what  IS  HAPPENING 
--  Dow Theory is  NOT  Predictive.    Thus, Dow Theory does
not reveal the extent nor duration of a movment, Bear or Bull.

	On The Basis of Dow Theory, the Stock Markets have been in a 
B-E-A-R  Market since April 2000   ----   L-O-N-G  before 9.11
and certainly Long Before any thought of War with Iraq.   
That alone bodes Ill for for the Economy and Transportation.

	As far as Values, Stocks yielding a return of 6% are
considered cheap and those yielding 3% are considered
expensive.    Stocks have typically corrected or gone into
Bear markets at 3% yields and then turned back up when stock
prices dropped to a 6% yield.    At the Bull Peak in 2000,
Stock yields were   L-E-S-S   T-H-A-N   1%,  UNHEARD  of  in
market History!    The Tech mania threw out values altogether
thinking we were in a New Age (which is really the same as the
1920s when radio and other New Age stocks were bid up) and
that the upside appreciation in stock values was limitless.

	And couple this with the economic studies of one
Mr.Kondratieff, commissioned by the Russian Communist
government to study the western economies, particularly
U.S.A.    Mr. Kondratieff found that our system experienced
Bear Markets the magnitude of the 1930s every 50-60--years on
average.    Poor Kondratieff was banned to Siberia for his
conclusions.    Had he said the western system was plain bad
and communist Socialism is Best, his fate would have been
different.

	As you have already done the math, we are 10-20--years  LATE 
for a Major Depression.    And the Longer and Wilder a Bull,
market history reveals the same holds for the following Bear.

	Thus, Absolutely Everything, Including Transportation, is
going to be adversely affected  I-F  we have a Major
Depression Now.    No One Individual Nor Any Groups of
Individuals can Guarantee a Major Depression and I certainly
Hope it Does Not Happen, but the Prospects for a Major
Depression are Extremely Ripe.

	As a matter of comparison, the Dow was above 350 and near 400
when the 1929 market crashed to about 35 in 1933  --  or about
10% of what it was in 1929.    The Dow was over 11,000 in
2000  --  10% would be 1,100.   NEVER  say it is impossible 
--  for that is one of the reasons it would come true.    And
don't say we have safeguards today  --  we have thrown much of
that out and what was separated into individual industries in
the 1930s  --  banking and insurance for example  --  are now
married again.    What's the old saying  --  History repeats
itself?!?!

	The U.S.A. has absolutely the Lowest Savings Rate on this
Globe.    We also carry the highest Debt Load on the Globe 
--  M-A-N-Y  Americans have 2nd, 3rd Mortgages and Credit
Cards MaXXXed Out.    Debt seems to be identified as an Asset
in the U.S.A.    Corporate Fraud is rampant and if we were
able to see the Tax returns of corporations, we might find
they differ substantially from figures reported to the SEC and
Stock Holders.

	BLAME  for::

		1.)--Bad Economy
		2.)--Transportation Problems
		3.)--ETC., Etc., etc.......

.......actually belongs to Each and Every American yet Bush
will probably get the most blame  --  and in reality is
probably the least culpable.    The War and again Bush will
ALSO get the blame for Transportation (and other) woes and
while the War certainly contributes, the War is hardly the
cause.    Remember, Dow Theory  CONFIRMED  that a Bear Market
Began in April 2000  --  long before 9.11 and the Iraq War.

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James B. Holland

Holland  Electric  Railway  Operation....... 
___"O"--Scale St.-Petersburg Trams Company Trolleycars and...
______"O"--Scale  Parts  mailto:pghpcc at pacbell.net

______Pennsylvania Trolley Museum http://www.pa-trolley.org/
___Pittsburgh  Railways  Company  (PRCo),   1930  --  1950
N.M.R.A.  Life member #2190; http://www.nmra.org

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