[PRCo] Re: Fwd: Would Fineview be abandoned today?

[John Swindler]

How did they count zones in 1948?  (Ed Tennyson told us)  And therein invalidates the rider counts submitted by the operators in 1948.
 
If population changes, doesn't mean the ridership will track exactly.  
 
> From: fwschneider at comcast.net> Subject: [PRCo] Re: Fwd: Would Fineview be abandoned today?> Date: Sun, 14 Dec 2008 11:01:58 -0500> To: pittsburgh-railways at dementia.org> > How can anyone tell. You know I have been squawking about the > accuracy of a lot of the data out there today. We know it was an > imperfect world then too. We know that some of the data today has > been derived by several different methods and they admit it in the > ConneT*9 website. In some cases they had their own people on the > buses counting riders because they didn't trust PAT's numbers.> > In 1948 PRC had fare registers and the operator pulled the cord every > time you gave him a transfer or dumped coins in the box. I > personally never saw an operator screw up. But I think it was a much > more conscientious world then than it is now.> > I think, however, it should be pretty obvious that if any American > city lost 60% of its people, then it will loose 60% of its transit > riding. Beyond that you look at what happened to motor vehicle > registrations. If went from one car in the family to four cars in > the family, then transit probably lost 75 to 90 percent of the > business. Perhaps the only thing that is holding PAT together is the > fact that the city has four or five universities and that commuting > from the south hills is abysmal. Having made made that blanket > statement, I thought back and those are the routes that are hauling > people. The rest aren't worth the powder to blow them to hell.> > On Dec 14, 2008, at 9:48 AM, John Swindler wrote:> > >> >> > The reports you said that you were putting on a spread sheet. > > Which is more accurate and why?> >> From: fwschneider at comcast.net> Subject: [PRCo] Re: Fwd: Would > >> Fineview be abandoned today?> Date: Sat, 13 Dec 2008 22:11:42 > >> -0500> To: pittsburgh-railways at dementia.org> > WHAT IS YOUR > >> QUESTION? REPHRASE IT?> > On Dec 13, 2008, at 8:56 PM, John > >> Swindler wrote:> > >> >> > Which is the more accurate ridership > >> count? The 1948 report of > > ridership data from 2008? And why?> > >> >> >> To: pittsburgh-railways at dementia.org> From: > >> > >> fwschneider at comcast.net> Subject: [PRCo] Fwd: Would Fineview be > > >> >> abandoned today?> Date: Sat, 13 Dec 2008 20:17:42 -0500> > > >> > >> ACCIDENTLY HIT SEND BEFORE FINISHING. DISREGARD LAST ONE & READ > > >> > >> THIS ONE.> Begin forwarded message:> > > From: Schneider Fred > >> > >> <fwschneider at comcast.net>> > Date: December 13, 2008 8:15:01 > >> PM > >> EST> > To: pittsburgh-railways at dementia.org> > Subject: > >> Would > >> Fineview be abandoned today?> >> > Bob Rathke pushed my > >> buttons > >> the other day. I am not willing to > > let something > >> fall by the > >> wayside with!> > out trying to come up with a > > decent answer. > >> Attached to > > this letter is a Microsoft Excel > > spreadsheet that > >> compares > > 2008 and 1948 Lougee report data for > > weekday > >> passengers in > > Pittsburgh. The Lougee Report only gives > > annual > >> > > averages ... for want of a better way to do it, I did not > > > >> > > adjust seasonally ... I simply assumed that summer and winter were > > > >> > > the same (they never are) but I assumed that 80% of th!> > > > e riders were > > weekdays (5/7ths of the days is 71 percent ... > > > > is 80% a tad low? > > Probably not because a lot of people were > > > > still working Saturday > > mornings. It's close.> >> > There is > > an > > even bigger problem with making any comparisons and > > that > > is > > that the routes in 1948 are far different from most of the > > > > > > routes today. Bob Rathke's lines up in Troy Hill or Spring > > Hill > > > > or Spring Garden actually go all the way up in the > > country to Ross > > > > Garage (Keating) today. The old 8 Perr!> > ysville line doesn't stop > > > > at Keating any more but goes all > > the> > way to West View. The old > > 11 > > East Street goes to Ross > > Garage Park and Ride. But there is > > a > > West View Express that > > uses the I-279 expressway but it only > > runs > > part-time. So > > most of the West View riders now go in > > Perrysville > > Avenue. > > Down in Manchester, all the routes (17, 18, > > 19 and 20) > > have > > been rolled into one line. Fineview has been > > combined with > > > > the old Charles Street shuttle. That is only par!> > t of how the > > > > city's route structure has been changed.> >> > > > Rememb> > er > > 96 East Liberty - 62nd St? Well, guys, it doesn't go to > > 62nd > > > > St. anymore. It crosses the Highland Park Bridge and goes up > > > > to > > Harmar Garage in O'Hara Township. And remember 94 Aspinwall > > > > and > > 95 Butler Street? Well, they don't end there ... > > they've been > > > > combined with the old West Penn, or later > > Community route up the > > > > valley. 94 now runs to Cheswick. 73 > > Highland doesn't go > > > > downtown. There are all sorts of vari!> > ants of 62 and 63 Trafford > > > > today.> >> > I gave you a > > smattering of the changes I had to cope > > with for the > > last > > three days in this analysis. If you want to > > make sense of > > > > it, you can go on like and pull up all the PAT > > schedules. They > > > > all have maps.> >> > Point is guys, is easier > > to come up > > with some reasonable number of > > weekday fares in 1948 > > than > > it is to allocate the passengers today > > on some comparable > > > > route to compare to the old route.> >> > But I've tried.> >> > The > > > > important considerations are these:> >> > Allegheny Count!> > > > y's population peaked about 1960 at 1.628 million > > and then > > > > began to implode. In 2000 the census takers enumerated > > 1.220 > > > > million people, a drop of about 400,000 people or 25 percent.> >> > > > > > Pittsburgh City had somewhere under 700,000 people at the end > > of > > > > World War II. The peak census year was 1950 with 676,806 > > but a > > lot > > of suburban homes had already been built b!> > etween 1945 and > > 1950. > > In 2000 the census takers counted > > 334,96> > 3 people in > > Pittsburgh. I > > found one website that suggests > > that Pittsburgh > > is reversing the > > trend but I found an even > > more telling one and > > that is that > > Pittsburgh School > > District enrollments have > > plummeted by one-third > > since the > > year 2000. Maybe some kids are > > going to charter schools > > or > > other private schools but I think > > this is telling me that the > > > > general population decline is > > continuing unabated and that > > the city > > probably has fewer than > > 300,000 people today ... > > down by more than > > 55 percent since > > 1945.> >> >!> > So what > > happened to the transit patronage?> >> > The typical bus > > rout> > > > e today is hauling somewhere between -75% and > > -95% of the > > > > passengers that were on it in 1948. And 1948 already > > > > > > represented a stinging drop from 1945 because we had almost caught > > > > > > up to the demand for new motor cars. The worst lines of all > > are > > > > those in the bottom lands --- the mill towns. Route 5!> > 6B > > Hazlewood > > is almost identical to the old 55 East > > Pitsburgh via > > Homestead and > > 2nd Ave ... it has lost 94.4 > > percent of the > > business it had in 1948.> >> > The best routes > > are the light rail > > lines, largely because they were > > in > > neighborhoods that expanded > > last. The interurbans actually had > > > > very low patronage; the > > areas beyond Castle Shannon didn't > > > > completely fill in with > > homes until after the Washington > > and > > Charleroi lines were torn > > up. Remember my picture of > > the > > weathered barn under the thunder > > clouds in the Bill > > Middleton's > > book The Time of the Trolley? > > That farm was > > just north of where > > South Hills Village Mall is > > sited > > today. As a re!> > sult, the rail > > patronage is only 30 percent > > lower than those > > routes moved in 1948 > > and most of that > > probably relates to the > > inner (abandoned portion) > > of route > > 38 Mount Lebanon, 49 > > Beltzhoover and of course to the > > > > declines in office im!> > portance > > downtown.> >> > Now, how likely would continued > > operation> > of routes > > 21 and 40 be > > other than to a railfan who dreams > > about it? In > > the late 1940s > > when General Electric was still > > trying to push > > electric vehicles, > > they suggested that you > > needed enough > > revenue passengers to fill a > > PCC car every > > five minutes to make > > it practical, and that a trolley > > bus > > worked well in a 5 to 7 > > minute envelope and beyond that diesels > > > > would earn you money.> > > >> > OK ... Lets run the numbers > > that GE was telling us. A filled > > PCC > > every five > > minutes ...> > Base period = 12 times an hour x > > in or out x 14 > > hours x 56 people > > = 9,408 people> > Base period > > in the > > other direction = 12 times an hour x in or out x > > 14 > > hours x! > > > > 25 people = 4,2000 people> > Evening = 6 times an hour x 4 > > hours > > x 30> > people x 2 directions = > > 1440 people> > Very > > late evening = 4 > > times an hour x 2 hours x 30 people x 2 > > > > directions = 480 > > people> > Owl service = 4 hours x 1 trip hour > > x 2 direct!> > ions x 15 > > people = > > 120 people> > Rush hours = 4 hours x 12 > > additional > > trips an hour x 150 people = > > 7,200 people> > > > Total = 22848> >> > > > When Pittsburgh Railways ordered the 1700s, > > at least routes 55, > > 56, > > 68, 76, 82, 87, 88 and 94 qualified > > for reinvestment > > according to > > the G. E. formula. Today > > there isn't anything that > > comes even > > close. The East Busway > > all-stops local has almost > > 10,000 riders > > on a weekday and > > that is heaviest bus route in > > the system.> >> >> >> > >> > > > >> > > > _________________________________________________________________> > > > Suspicious message? There’s an alert for that.> > http:// > > windowslive.com/Explore/hotmail? > > > > ocid=TXT_TAGLM_WL_hotmail_acq_broad2_122008> >> > >> > _________________________________________________________________> > Suspicious message? There’s an alert for that.> > http://windowslive.com/Explore/hotmail? > > ocid=TXT_TAGLM_WL_hotmail_acq_broad2_122008> >> > > 
_________________________________________________________________
Send e-mail anywhere. No map, no compass.
http://windowslive.com/Explore/hotmail?ocid=TXT_TAGLM_WL_hotmail_acq_anywhere_122008