[PRCo] Re: living in PA

[robert simpson]

Fred;

Thanks for your thoughts on the labor economics.  I have been away for too many
years and the information you offer is most welcome.  Your insight has
clarified much confusion about unemployment rates.

Visited the 'Burgh two weeks ago.  Wow!  Lots of changes.  Some good, some bad.

Bob
from Krazy Kalifornia
where English is occasionally heard

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

At 07:45 PM 6/13/2008, you wrote:
>one correction, Fred to your epistle-I-83, not 78 from York to Bal'mer.
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Fred Schneider" <fwschneider at comcast.net>
>To: <pittsburgh-railways at dementia.org>
>Sent: Friday, June 13, 2008 6:05 PM
>Subject: [PRCo] Re: living in PA
>
>
> > This again is for Jerry but the rest of you can delete or read
> > depending on how much you care to be abused.
> >
> > It's all about labor economics in southeastern Pennsylvania by a guy
> > who worked in the field and ultimately managed all the field analysts
> > doing the work in this part of the state.
> >
> > No, Jerry, York isn't stagnant.   It's unemployment rate in April
> > 2008, seasonally adjusted, was 4.3 percent of the labor force, which
> > is about half a percent better than the national average.  In
> > general, for the last 50 years, there has been a prosperous growth
> > belt that lies south and east of the Appalachian Mountains and
> > outside of Philadelphia County proper.  In more recent years there
> > appears to have been a decline or at least a stagnation in some of
> > the  parts of Delaware County close to the City of Philadelphia.
> > Chester has gone down hill just like Philadelphia.   I've noticed
> > that the Sharon Hill line of Red Arrow has changed from suburban
> > white to suburban black but it still has a middle class look to it.
> > But we all know there are people who hire people because they look
> > like themselves, which could hurt some of those people.
> >
> > Lebanon, Pennsylvania was also hit when Bethlehem Steel closed its
> > screw and bolt mill.  However, so many people have commuted to jobs
> > with Hershey Foods and with the state government in Harrisburg that
> > Lebanon  is sometimes a separate MSA and then a new census is taken
> > and O. M. B. merges it with Harrisburg.  It is marginally on it's own
> > and there is cheaper housing there than in Harrisburg or Hershey or
> > Lancaster but not a whole lot cheaper ... not cheap when you compare
> > it to housing in Bedford or Sayre or Wilkes-Barre.  Lebanon had the
> > lowest unemployment in the state at 3.8 percent of the labor force.
> >
> > York tended in the past to be dominated by heavy industry York
> > Corporation (Yorkaire), Caterpillar tractor, Harley-Davidson, while
> > Lancaster firms manufactured consumer goods and in many cases
> > discretionary consumer goods (boats, recreational vehicles).
> > Caterpillar closed the factory about 20 years ago leaving only a
> > warehousing operation and that did hurt York.   On the other-hand,
> > southern York County has become a bedroom community for Baltimore and
> > its extended suburbs.   Between 5:00 and 5:30 on any weekday
> > afternoon, Interstate 78 coming north from Baltimore into lower York
> > County behaves like an accordion.   Baltimore is not a destination,
> > but its suburbs are and many of those people work in the Baltimore
> > suburbs.
> >
> > The next big growth area is the Chambersburg - Waynesboro area far to
> > the west of York southwest of Harrisburg.   Like Lancaster, low-wage
> > rates in the mid-century caused a lot of firms to choose to locate
> > there.   But more recently I can see that area becoming suburban
> > Washington DC.  I kid thee not.   Ed Lybarger's daughter lives in
> > Thurmont, Maryland, which is on US 15 between Gettysburg and
> > Frederick, MD.   She works in the Washington area and commutes in
> > every day.   The National Bureau of Standards found itself unable to
> > get competent workers in the District of Columbia and moved out to
> > Frederick or Hagerstown about 40 years ago.  If you drive I-70 west
> > from Washington in the late afternoon, it's gang busters.   And look
> > at the MARC schedules -- again we have commuter service to
> > Frederick.   So I can see that, eventually that whole Hagerstown,
> > Frederick, Gettysburg, Chambersburg, Waynesboro area can become a
> > massive western suburb of Washington.   Washington DC itself has
> > grown by as much as dropping Pittsburgh on top of it since Metro
> > opened in 1976 and this growth to the west is just in addition.  What
> > happens with $4, or $5 or $10 gasoline.   Your guess is as good as mine.
> >
> > If any area in southeastern Pennsylvania has stagnated, it might be
> > Berks County where the principal city is Reading (pronounced like the
> > color Red'-ing).  The Reading Railroad, during the period when
> > anthracite coal was used for home heating, was one of the most
> > profitable class one railroads in the nation.  It probably grossed
> > more per mile of track than any other Class 1.  It's principal shops
> > were in Reading.   Even though the electric MU cars were maintained
> > at Wayne Junction (Philadelphia), heavy repairs on those cars was
> > done in Reading too.  Reading built locomotives up through the G3
> > Pacifics and T1 Northerns in 1948.   The railroad was probably the
> > largest employer in town.  The second largest employer that hired men
> > for skilled, high paying jobs was Carpenter Steel (Cartech today).
> > Well we all know what happened to the steel industry.   At the
> > Reading railroad shops was one of those facilities that Conrail
> > decided it did not need after 1976.   The largest employer of women
> > was Berkshire Knitting, which employed several thousand girls making
> > nylon stockings.   Berkshire decided not to install the new looms for
> > panty hose when the mini-skirt craze came in in the late 1960s.
> > Horst and Nolde was also in that same business: just slightly smaller
> > than Berkshire.   They are also gone today.   About the only
> > garment / textile firm I can think of that is still in business in
> > Berks County might be Valley Forge Flag Company ... makes American
> > flags but they have a hard time competing with the Chinese.   I can
> > think of one boot company that remains.   Hamilton Bank built a huge
> > corporate office downtown and just after it opened, Wachovia closed
> > it.   Reading had the second highest unemployment in April at 5.1
> > percent of the labor force.
> >
> > Bethlehem was hurt in the early to middle 1980s, just like
> > Pittsburgh, in this instance first by the closure of the basic steel
> > operations of Bethlehem Steel Corporation and then later by the
> > closure of Bethlehem's coke works in Hellertown.  Initially, however,
> > it did not have a profound affect on that area because people were
> > moving into the area who were commuting every day over Interstate 78
> > jobs in northern New Jersey or New York City.   Let's just say to
> > jobs in the New York Consolidate Metropolitan Statistical Area ...
> > that saves trying to define which county between Bridgeport CT and
> > Somerset County NJ.   However, the Allentown - Bethlehem - Easton MSA
> > had a lot of the same things going for it that made Lancaster strong
> > and it has, until now, been able to weather any problems.   The
> > $4.00, $5.00 and $10.00 a gallon gasoline is going to be a whole new
> > issue in an area which has become a bedroom community for New York.
> > This April, A-B-E was showing the highest unemployment in
> > southeastern Pennsylvania at 5.3 percent of the labor force.
> >
> > Now when I toss out unemployment figures, you need to understand the
> > definitions.   They represent people who are out of work and who have
> > looked for work in the last 30 days.   Do not be misguided by people
> > want you to believe it has anything to with people whose unemployment
> > claims have run out.   Has nothing whatsoever to do with claims.
> > You can be working less than normal hours, be drawning a partial
> > unemployment check and be considered employed.   You can also have
> > exhausted benefits or been disqualified for benefits but if you
> > looked for work in the month and had no work, then you meet the U. S.
> > definition.   How do we know that you were out of work?   There is a
> > monthly household survey done by the census department that selects
> > about one percent of all the homes in the United States at random.
> > That survey yields national accuracy to within 0.1 percent, i.e. if
> > the unemployment rate moved from 4.4 to 4.5, maybe it did, maybe
> > didn't.   But if it moved from 4.4 to 4.6, it did move and it went up
> > by somewhere between 0.1 and 0.3.  The local and state rates are
> > adjusted to that same household survey.   Are they as accurate?
> > No.   But the annual averages certainly are in Pittsburgh or
> > Pennsylvania or Philadelphia.   Is Rhode Island?   Who knows.   What
> > are the chances of having a valid one-percent same in Rhode Island?
> > Or  Wyoming?   But Pennsylvania data has always met reasonable tests
> > of a 100% census count every ten years.
> >
> > Notice the big flaw in this argument ... 'LOOKED FOR WORK IN THE LAST
> > 30 DAYS."  Southwestern Pennsylvania can post very low unemployment
> > rates but those counties can also have very low labor force
> > participation rates (that is the share of people working out of the
> > population age 16 and over).   Note that I said 16 and over and not
> > 16 to 65 or not 16 to 70 or not 16 to 75.   There is no upper
> > cutoff.   Because the Allegheny, Fayette, Westmoreland, Greene,
> > Blair, Cambria, and Shenango counties have very elderly populations,
> > they will tend to have low participation rates because many of the
> > people are retired.   They are not working.  They are not looking for
> > work.   But they are also not unemployed.  That is why Pittsburgh can
> > come in with a 4.9 percent unemployment rate with so few people working.
> >
> > Philadelphia County can also come in with a perhaps surprisingly low
> > rate because some of those people are dumb as foxes.   They are on
> > welfare.   They're not looking for work.
> >
> > But you get into areas like Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, and some
> > suburban Philadelphia Counties ... if you are out of work ... you are
> > used to working and you are younger ... it is what you understand ...
> > if the household survey gets you, you admit you have looked for
> > work.  You are unemployed.
> >
> > On Jun 13, 2008, at 3:32 PM, Jerry MATT Matsick wrote:
> >
> >> Fred - when I was up at York in April 2007,  a friend and I drove
> >> from Lancaster to Harrisburg, I could
> >> not believe the growth, where are these people coming from:?
> >> Philly / Balto areas?   Where do they
> >> work?      Lancaster seems to be booming and yet York just 45
> >> minutes to the west seems to be
> >> stagnant?    What ever happend to the "Trolley" talk that went on a
> >> year or so ago in Lancaster?
> >> --
> >> From the RIVER CITY by the Sea!
> >> Jerry "Matt" Matsick
> >> J A C K S O N V I L L E, Florida !
> >>
> >> -------------- Original message from Fred Schneider
> >> <fwschneider at comcast.net>: --------------
> >>
> >>
> >
> >