[PRCo] Re: population trends

Mon Apr 9 10:34:28 EDT 2012

You have to look where Allegheny's population growth is...new communities
are springing up on vacant land all over the place, and it's most definitely
suburban.  I believe the population numbers, but don't understand the desire
to pay high property taxes.  Butler and Washington taxes are about half of
Allegheny's.  I guess my perspective is different from many.

-----Original Message-----
From: pittsburgh-railways-bounce at lists.dementix.org
[mailto:pittsburgh-railways-bounce at lists.dementix.org] On Behalf Of Fred
Schneider
Sent: Sunday, April 08, 2012 4:18 PM
To: pittsburgh-railways at dementix.org
Subject: [PRCo] Re: population trends 

Some of the U. S. Census Bureau's intercensal estimates have been way off
base.   Do I believe growth in Allegheny County?

The county is much more urban than the surrounding areas.   It includes
Pittsburgh.  Many other cities showed unprecedented growth in the 2010
census ... perhaps we are learning that we cannot afford to live on huge
lots in the suburbs in humongous homes that cost a fortune to heat and cool
and require inordinate expense to get to and from our daily destinations.
Would I believe a slight gain ... maybe.   The gain they are showing is 0.2
percent, which, if extrapolated over ten years, would only be one-third of
the loss between 2000 and 2010.

For the first time, Pittsburgh's unemployment is slightly below the national
average.  Maybe the region has finally reached equilibrium and can accept a
slight influx of people.  Time will tell.   

But the story tells us it was driven not by more births than deaths but by
people moving into the area.   If you start with a given ... given we
already believe that the population is growing, and we know from vital
statistics that deaths exceed births, then we must blame the increase on
people into the area.   Yes, you all know I am a cynic.   But I also know
there is no good way to document migration between states or counties or
cities.   

We should be creating the estimate by adding together births minus deaths
plus in migration minus out migration.  However, I want you to tell me how
you are going to measure migration from state to state.   If the federal
government was really good at it, then we would know where all those
Mexicans are dispersed!   :<)   Truth is, they don't know.   If they want to
take the time to look, for example, at where courtesy claims for
unemployment insurance are being filed, they might have some idea that
people from Pittsburgh moved to Topeka or that people from Wichita moved to
Dallas.   They might also get a clue by looking at school enrollment data.
But my experience in looking at some of their intercensal estimates makes me
believe they are more along the line of projections based on the past than
honest attempts at estimating the future.   The latter takes too much work
and is awfully hard to defend.    But this Pittsburgh number is the reverse
of the past.   I have no clue!
  what they are doing.   Maybe they know some cities went up and think it's
only proper to move them all up?????

I remember a urinating contest I got into back in the early 1970s over how
many Spanish speaking people lived in Lancaster County. I inflamed the
Spanish speaking community by telling them that my estimate was 2,500.  My
estimate was one-quarter of the number they wanted us to believe.   I had
based it on the percentage of kids in the schools and the family size of
Spanish kids compared to non Spanish.   All knowns.   When the census came
in a few months later at 2,475, we were of course both idiots ... I didn't
know how to estimate and the census didn't know how to count.    But the guy
who argued most loudly with me moved back to Puerto Rico.  

On Apr 8, 2012, at 10:36 AM, Dennis F Cramer wrote:

> http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/pittsburgh/s_79037
> 7.html This was in the Sunday (4-8) Tribune Review. What is not 
> included in the online version is the graph showing the various 
> counties. I have attached a scan of it.
> 
> Here is a small portion of the article.
> "The 10-county area of Western Pennsylvania showed population gains in 
> 2011, according to Census Bureau population estimates released last week.
> 
> Allegheny County's population increased by 2,233 people from 2010 for 
> a 2011 population of 1.2 million people. The region's population - 
> despite losses in some counties, like Westmoreland, which saw a 614 
> decrease from 2010 - rose by 930 people for a 2011 population of 2.6
million people.
> 
> The 10-county region includes Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, 
> Fayette, Greene, Indiana, Lawrence, Washington and Westmoreland counties.
> 
> Newcomers rather than newborns made the difference. The region had 
> 3,468 more deaths than births, Census figures showed."
> 
> 
> 
>          Dennis F. Cramer
> http://home.windstream.net/dfc1
> 
> 
> 
> -- Attached file removed by Ecartis and put at URL below --
> -- Type: image/jpeg
> -- Size: 433k (444399 bytes)
> -- URL : 
> http://lists.dementix.org/files/pittsburgh-railways/population%20trend
> s.jpg
> 
> 
> 