[PRCo] Re: population trends

Mon Apr 9 12:21:37 EDT 2012

 A sound alike name from 40 years ago - and thankfully Ed (and others) have much better recollections for the details.  Yes, the county commissioner guy.  > From: trams2 at comcast.net
> To: pittsburgh-railways at dementix.org
> Subject: [PRCo] Re: population trends
> Date: Mon, 9 Apr 2012 11:26:32 -0400
> 
> I think John was referring to the late Leonard Staisey, an Allegheny County
> commissioner.
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: pittsburgh-railways-bounce at lists.dementix.org
> [mailto:pittsburgh-railways-bounce at lists.dementix.org] On Behalf Of Dwight
> Long
> Sent: Monday, April 09, 2012 11:06 AM
> To: pittsburgh-railways at dementix.org
> Subject: [PRCo] Re: population trends
> 
> John
> 
> Are you referring to Bob Stacey (RIP) or someone with a sound-alike name?
> 
> Dwight
> 
> From: John Swindler
> Sent: Monday, 09 April, 2012 09:00
> To: pittsburgh-railways at dementix.org
> Subject: [PRCo] Re: population trends
> 
> Perhaps much of the US census statistics are not important - except to
> politicians looking for someone to tax, and for playing games with number of
> congressional districts.   Don't overlook what Stasey told Geissenheimer
> back in 1972 - that about 25% of the voting rolls have changes each
> election.  People move.  They get jobs.  They get married.  They have
> children.  They buy homes.  Children get old and leave the home.  They
> retire.  They die.  So why should this all occur in the same county or even
> the same municipal district??       > Subject: [PRCo] Re: population trends 
> > From: fwschneider at comcast.net
> > Date: Sun, 8 Apr 2012 16:18:07 -0400
> > To: pittsburgh-railways at dementix.org
> > 
> > Some of the U. S. Census Bureau's intercensal estimates have been way off
> base.   Do I believe growth in Allegheny County?
> > 
> > The county is much more urban than the surrounding areas.   It includes
> Pittsburgh.  Many other cities showed unprecedented growth in the 2010
> census ... perhaps we are learning that we cannot afford to live on huge
> lots in the suburbs in humongous homes that cost a fortune to heat and cool
> and require inordinate expense to get to and from our daily destinations.
> Would I believe a slight gain ... maybe.   The gain they are showing is 0.2
> percent, which, if extrapolated over ten years, would only be one-third of
> the loss between 2000 and 2010.
> > 
> > For the first time, Pittsburgh's unemployment is slightly below the
> national average.  Maybe the region has finally reached equilibrium and can
> accept a slight influx of people.  Time will tell.   
> > 
> > But the story tells us it was driven not by more births than deaths but by
> people moving into the area.   If you start with a given ... given we
> already believe that the population is growing, and we know from vital
> statistics that deaths exceed births, then we must blame the increase on
> people into the area.   Yes, you all know I am a cynic.   But I also know
> there is no good way to document migration between states or counties or
> cities.   
> > 
> > We should be creating the estimate by adding together births minus deaths
> plus in migration minus out migration.  However, I want you to tell me how
> you are going to measure migration from state to state.   If the federal
> government was really good at it, then we would know where all those
> Mexicans are dispersed!   :<)   Truth is, they don't know.   If they want to
> take the time to look, for example, at where courtesy claims for
> unemployment insurance are being filed, they might have some idea that
> people from Pittsburgh moved to Topeka or that people from Wichita moved to
> Dallas.   They might also get a clue by looking at school enrollment data.
> But my experience in looking at some of their intercensal estimates makes me
> believe they are more along the line of projections based on the past than
> honest attempts at estimating the future.   The latter takes too much work
> and is awfully hard to defend.    But this Pittsburgh number is the reverse
> of the past.   I have no cl!
> ue!
> >   what they are doing.   Maybe they know some cities went up and think
> it's only proper to move them all up?????
> > 
> > I remember a urinating contest I got into back in the early 1970s over how
> many Spanish speaking people lived in Lancaster County. I inflamed the
> Spanish speaking community by telling them that my estimate was 2,500.  My
> estimate was one-quarter of the number they wanted us to believe.   I had
> based it on the percentage of kids in the schools and the family size of
> Spanish kids compared to non Spanish.   All knowns.   When the census came
> in a few months later at 2,475, we were of course both idiots ... I didn't
> know how to estimate and the census didn't know how to count.    But the guy
> who argued most loudly with me moved back to Puerto Rico.  
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > On Apr 8, 2012, at 10:36 AM, Dennis F Cramer wrote:
> > 
> > > http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/pittsburgh/s_790
> > > 377.html This was in the Sunday (4-8) Tribune Review. What is not 
> > > included in the online version is the graph showing the various 
> > > counties. I have attached a scan of it.
> > > 
> > > Here is a small portion of the article.
> > > "The 10-county area of Western Pennsylvania showed population gains 
> > > in 2011, according to Census Bureau population estimates released last
> week.
> > > 
> > > Allegheny County's population increased by 2,233 people from 2010 
> > > for a 2011 population of 1.2 million people. The region's population 
> > > - despite losses in some counties, like Westmoreland, which saw a 
> > > 614 decrease from 2010 - rose by 930 people for a 2011 population of 2.6
> million people.
> > > 
> > > The 10-county region includes Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, 
> > > Fayette, Greene, Indiana, Lawrence, Washington and Westmoreland
> counties.
> > > 
> > > Newcomers rather than newborns made the difference. The region had 
> > > 3,468 more deaths than births, Census figures showed."
> > > 
> > > 
> > > 
> > >          Dennis F. Cramer
> > > http://home.windstream.net/dfc1
> > > 
> > > 
> > > 
> > > -- Attached file removed by Ecartis and put at URL below --
> > > -- Type: image/jpeg
> > > -- Size: 433k (444399 bytes)
> > > -- URL : 
> > > http://lists.dementix.org/files/pittsburgh-railways/population%20tre
> > > nds.jpg
> > > 
> > > 
> > > 
> > 
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