[PRCo] Re: Fwd: Would Fineview be abandoned today?

[John Swindler]

The reports you said that you were putting on a spread sheet.  Which is more accurate and why? 
> From: fwschneider at comcast.net> Subject: [PRCo] Re: Fwd: Would Fineview be abandoned today?> Date: Sat, 13 Dec 2008 22:11:42 -0500> To: pittsburgh-railways at dementia.org> > WHAT IS YOUR QUESTION? REPHRASE IT?> > On Dec 13, 2008, at 8:56 PM, John Swindler wrote:> > >> >> > Which is the more accurate ridership count? The 1948 report of > > ridership data from 2008? And why?> >> >> To: pittsburgh-railways at dementia.org> From: > >> fwschneider at comcast.net> Subject: [PRCo] Fwd: Would Fineview be > >> abandoned today?> Date: Sat, 13 Dec 2008 20:17:42 -0500> > > >> ACCIDENTLY HIT SEND BEFORE FINISHING. DISREGARD LAST ONE & READ > > >> THIS ONE.> Begin forwarded message:> > > From: Schneider Fred > >> <fwschneider at comcast.net>> > Date: December 13, 2008 8:15:01 PM > >> EST> > To: pittsburgh-railways at dementia.org> > Subject: Would > >> Fineview be abandoned today?> >> > Bob Rathke pushed my buttons > >> the other day. I am not willing to > > let something fall by the > >> wayside without trying to come up with a > > decent answer. > >> Attached to this letter is a Microsoft Excel > > spreadsheet that > >> compares 2008 and 1948 Lougee report data for > > weekday > >> passengers in Pittsburgh. The Lougee Report only gives > > annual > >> averages ... for want of a better way to do it, I did not > > > >> adjust seasonally ... I simply assumed that summer and winter were > >> > > the same (they never are) but I assumed that 80% of th!> > e riders were > > weekdays (5/7ths of the days is 71 percent ... > > is 80% a tad low? > > Probably not because a lot of people were > > still working Saturday > > mornings. It's close.> >> > There is an > > even bigger problem with making any comparisons and > > that is > > that the routes in 1948 are far different from most of the > > > > routes today. Bob Rathke's lines up in Troy Hill or Spring Hill > > > > or Spring Garden actually go all the way up in the country to Ross > > > > Garage (Keating) today. The old 8 Perrysville line doesn't stop > > > > at Keating any more but goes all the way to West View. The old > > 11 > > East Street goes to Ross Garage Park and Ride. But there is > > a > > West View Express that uses the I-279 expressway but it only > > runs > > part-time. So most of the West View riders now go in > > Perrysville > > Avenue. Down in Manchester, all the routes (17, 18, > > 19 and 20) > > have been rolled into one line. Fineview has been > > combined with > > the old Charles Street shuttle. That is only par!> > t of how the > > city's route structure has been changed.> >> > > > Rememb> > er 96 East Liberty - 62nd St? Well, guys, it doesn't go to > > 62nd > > St. anymore. It crosses the Highland Park Bridge and goes up > > to > > Harmar Garage in O'Hara Township. And remember 94 Aspinwall > > and > > 95 Butler Street? Well, they don't end there ... they've been > > > > combined with the old West Penn, or later Community route up the > > > > valley. 94 now runs to Cheswick. 73 Highland doesn't go > > > > downtown. There are all sorts of variants of 62 and 63 Trafford > > > > today.> >> > I gave you a smattering of the changes I had to cope > > with for the > > last three days in this analysis. If you want to > > make sense of > > it, you can go on like and pull up all the PAT > > schedules. They > > all have maps.> >> > Point is guys, is easier > > to come up with some reasonable number of > > weekday fares in 1948 > > than it is to allocate the passengers today > > on some comparable > > route to compare to the old route.> >> > But I've tried.> >> > The > > important considerations are these:> >> > Allegheny Count!> > y's population peaked about 1960 at 1.628 million > > and then > > began to implode. In 2000 the census takers enumerated > > 1.220 > > million people, a drop of about 400,000 people or 25 percent.> >> > > > Pittsburgh City had somewhere under 700,000 people at the end of > > > > World War II. The peak census year was 1950 with 676,806 but a > > lot > > of suburban homes had already been built between 1945 and > > 1950. > > In 2000 the census takers counted 334,963 people in > > Pittsburgh. I > > found one website that suggests that Pittsburgh > > is reversing the > > trend but I found an even more telling one and > > that is that > > Pittsburgh School District enrollments have > > plummeted by one-third > > since the year 2000. Maybe some kids are > > going to charter schools > > or other private schools but I think > > this is telling me that the > > general population decline is > > continuing unabated and that the city > > probably has fewer than > > 300,000 people today ... down by more than > > 55 percent since > > 1945.> >> >!> > So what happened to the transit patronage?> >> > The typical bus > > rout> > e today is hauling somewhere between -75% and > > -95% of the > > passengers that were on it in 1948. And 1948 already > > > > represented a stinging drop from 1945 because we had almost caught > > > > up to the demand for new motor cars. The worst lines of all are > > > > those in the bottom lands --- the mill towns. Route 56B > > Hazlewood > > is almost identical to the old 55 East Pitsburgh via > > Homestead and > > 2nd Ave ... it has lost 94.4 percent of the > > business it had in 1948.> >> > The best routes are the light rail > > lines, largely because they were > > in neighborhoods that expanded > > last. The interurbans actually had > > very low patronage; the > > areas beyond Castle Shannon didn't > > completely fill in with > > homes until after the Washington and > > Charleroi lines were torn > > up. Remember my picture of the > > weathered barn under the thunder > > clouds in the Bill Middleton's > > book The Time of the Trolley? > > That farm was just north of where > > South Hills Village Mall is > > sited today. As a re!> > sult, the rail > > patronage is only 30 percent lower than those > > routes moved in 1948 > > and most of that probably relates to the > > inner (abandoned portion) > > of route 38 Mount Lebanon, 49 > > Beltzhoover and of course to the > > declines in office importance > > downtown.> >> > Now, how likely would continued operation of routes > > 21 and 40 be > > other than to a railfan who dreams about it? In > > the late 1940s > > when General Electric was still trying to push > > electric vehicles, > > they suggested that you needed enough > > revenue passengers to fill a > > PCC car every five minutes to make > > it practical, and that a trolley > > bus worked well in a 5 to 7 > > minute envelope and beyond that diesels > > would earn you money.> > > >> > OK ... Lets run the numbers that GE was telling us. A filled > > PCC > > every five minutes ...> > Base period = 12 times an hour x > > in or out x 14 hours x 56 people > > = 9,408 people> > Base period > > in the other direction = 12 times an hour x in or out x > > 14 > > hours x!> > 25 people = 4,2000 people> > Evening = 6 times an hour x 4 hours > > x 30> > people x 2 directions = > > 1440 people> > Very late evening = 4 > > times an hour x 2 hours x 30 people x 2 > > directions = 480 > > people> > Owl service = 4 hours x 1 trip hour x 2 directions x 15 > > people = > > 120 people> > Rush hours = 4 hours x 12 additional > > trips an hour x 150 people = > > 7,200 people> > Total = 22848> >> > > > When Pittsburgh Railways ordered the 1700s, at least routes 55, > > 56, > > 68, 76, 82, 87, 88 and 94 qualified for reinvestment > > according to > > the G. E. formula. Today there isn't anything that > > comes even > > close. The East Busway all-stops local has almost > > 10,000 riders > > on a weekday and that is heaviest bus route in > > the system.> >> >> >> > >> > >> > _________________________________________________________________> > Suspicious message? There’s an alert for that.> > http://windowslive.com/Explore/hotmail? > > ocid=TXT_TAGLM_WL_hotmail_acq_broad2_122008> >> > > 
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