[PRCo] Re: Fwd: Would Fineview be abandoned today?

[Schneider Fred]

WHAT IS YOUR QUESTION?  REPHRASE IT?

On Dec 13, 2008, at 8:56 PM, John Swindler wrote:

>
>
> Which is the more accurate ridership count?  The 1948 report of  
> ridership data from 2008?  And why?
>
>> To: pittsburgh-railways at dementia.org> From:  
>> fwschneider at comcast.net> Subject: [PRCo] Fwd: Would Fineview be  
>> abandoned today?> Date: Sat, 13 Dec 2008 20:17:42 -0500> >  
>> ACCIDENTLY HIT SEND BEFORE FINISHING. DISREGARD LAST ONE & READ >  
>> THIS ONE.> Begin forwarded message:> > > From: Schneider Fred  
>> <fwschneider at comcast.net>> > Date: December 13, 2008 8:15:01 PM  
>> EST> > To: pittsburgh-railways at dementia.org> > Subject: Would  
>> Fineview be abandoned today?> >> > Bob Rathke pushed my buttons  
>> the other day. I am not willing to > > let something fall by the  
>> wayside without trying to come up with a > > decent answer.  
>> Attached to this letter is a Microsoft Excel > > spreadsheet that  
>> compares 2008 and 1948 Lougee report data for > > weekday  
>> passengers in Pittsburgh. The Lougee Report only gives > > annual  
>> averages ... for want of a better way to do it, I did not > >  
>> adjust seasonally ... I simply assumed that summer and winter were  
>> > > the same (they never are) but I assumed that 80% of th!
>  e riders were > > weekdays (5/7ths of the days is 71 percent ...  
> is 80% a tad low? > > Probably not because a lot of people were  
> still working Saturday > > mornings. It's close.> >> > There is an  
> even bigger problem with making any comparisons and > > that is  
> that the routes in 1948 are far different from most of the > >  
> routes today. Bob Rathke's lines up in Troy Hill or Spring Hill > >  
> or Spring Garden actually go all the way up in the country to Ross  
> > > Garage (Keating) today. The old 8 Perrysville line doesn't stop  
> > > at Keating any more but goes all the way to West View. The old  
> 11 > > East Street goes to Ross Garage Park and Ride. But there is  
> a > > West View Express that uses the I-279 expressway but it only  
> runs > > part-time. So most of the West View riders now go in  
> Perrysville > > Avenue. Down in Manchester, all the routes (17, 18,  
> 19 and 20) > > have been rolled into one line. Fineview has been  
> combined with > > the old Charles Street shuttle. That is only par!
>  t of how the > > city's route structure has been changed.> >> >  
> Rememb
> er 96 East Liberty - 62nd St? Well, guys, it doesn't go to > > 62nd  
> St. anymore. It crosses the Highland Park Bridge and goes up > > to  
> Harmar Garage in O'Hara Township. And remember 94 Aspinwall > > and  
> 95 Butler Street? Well, they don't end there ... they've been > >  
> combined with the old West Penn, or later Community route up the >  
> > valley. 94 now runs to Cheswick. 73 Highland doesn't go > >  
> downtown. There are all sorts of variants of 62 and 63 Trafford > >  
> today.> >> > I gave you a smattering of the changes I had to cope  
> with for the > > last three days in this analysis. If you want to  
> make sense of > > it, you can go on like and pull up all the PAT  
> schedules. They > > all have maps.> >> > Point is guys, is easier  
> to come up with some reasonable number of > > weekday fares in 1948  
> than it is to allocate the passengers today > > on some comparable  
> route to compare to the old route.> >> > But I've tried.> >> > The  
> important considerations are these:> >> > Allegheny Count!
>  y's population peaked about 1960 at 1.628 million > > and then  
> began to implode. In 2000 the census takers enumerated > > 1.220  
> million people, a drop of about 400,000 people or 25 percent.> >> >  
> Pittsburgh City had somewhere under 700,000 people at the end of >  
> > World War II. The peak census year was 1950 with 676,806 but a  
> lot > > of suburban homes had already been built between 1945 and  
> 1950. > > In 2000 the census takers counted 334,963 people in  
> Pittsburgh. I > > found one website that suggests that Pittsburgh  
> is reversing the > > trend but I found an even more telling one and  
> that is that > > Pittsburgh School District enrollments have  
> plummeted by one-third > > since the year 2000. Maybe some kids are  
> going to charter schools > > or other private schools but I think  
> this is telling me that the > > general population decline is  
> continuing unabated and that the city > > probably has fewer than  
> 300,000 people today ... down by more than > > 55 percent since  
> 1945.> >> >!
>   So what happened to the transit patronage?> >> > The typical bus  
> rout
> e today is hauling somewhere between -75% and > > -95% of the  
> passengers that were on it in 1948. And 1948 already > >  
> represented a stinging drop from 1945 because we had almost caught  
> > > up to the demand for new motor cars. The worst lines of all are  
> > > those in the bottom lands --- the mill towns. Route 56B  
> Hazlewood > > is almost identical to the old 55 East Pitsburgh via  
> Homestead and > > 2nd Ave ... it has lost 94.4 percent of the  
> business it had in 1948.> >> > The best routes are the light rail  
> lines, largely because they were > > in neighborhoods that expanded  
> last. The interurbans actually had > > very low patronage; the  
> areas beyond Castle Shannon didn't > > completely fill in with  
> homes until after the Washington and > > Charleroi lines were torn  
> up. Remember my picture of the > > weathered barn under the thunder  
> clouds in the Bill Middleton's > > book The Time of the Trolley?  
> That farm was just north of where > > South Hills Village Mall is  
> sited today. As a re!
>  sult, the rail > > patronage is only 30 percent lower than those  
> routes moved in 1948 > > and most of that probably relates to the  
> inner (abandoned portion) > > of route 38 Mount Lebanon, 49  
> Beltzhoover and of course to the > > declines in office importance  
> downtown.> >> > Now, how likely would continued operation of routes  
> 21 and 40 be > > other than to a railfan who dreams about it? In  
> the late 1940s > > when General Electric was still trying to push  
> electric vehicles, > > they suggested that you needed enough  
> revenue passengers to fill a > > PCC car every five minutes to make  
> it practical, and that a trolley > > bus worked well in a 5 to 7  
> minute envelope and beyond that diesels > > would earn you money.>  
> >> > OK ... Lets run the numbers that GE was telling us. A filled  
> PCC > > every five minutes ...> > Base period = 12 times an hour x  
> in or out x 14 hours x 56 people > > = 9,408 people> > Base period  
> in the other direction = 12 times an hour x in or out x > > 14  
> hours x!
>   25 people = 4,2000 people> > Evening = 6 times an hour x 4 hours  
> x 30
>  people x 2 directions = > > 1440 people> > Very late evening = 4  
> times an hour x 2 hours x 30 people x 2 > > directions = 480  
> people> > Owl service = 4 hours x 1 trip hour x 2 directions x 15  
> people = > > 120 people> > Rush hours = 4 hours x 12 additional  
> trips an hour x 150 people = > > 7,200 people> > Total = 22848> >>  
> > When Pittsburgh Railways ordered the 1700s, at least routes 55,  
> 56, > > 68, 76, 82, 87, 88 and 94 qualified for reinvestment  
> according to > > the G. E. formula. Today there isn't anything that  
> comes even > > close. The East Busway all-stops local has almost  
> 10,000 riders > > on a weekday and that is heaviest bus route in  
> the system.> >> >> >> > >> > >
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