[PRCo] Re: Fwd: Would Fineview be abandoned today?

[John Swindler]

Which is the more accurate ridership count?  The 1948 report of ridership data from 2008?  And why?
 
> To: pittsburgh-railways at dementia.org> From: fwschneider at comcast.net> Subject: [PRCo] Fwd: Would Fineview be abandoned today?> Date: Sat, 13 Dec 2008 20:17:42 -0500> > ACCIDENTLY HIT SEND BEFORE FINISHING. DISREGARD LAST ONE & READ > THIS ONE.> Begin forwarded message:> > > From: Schneider Fred <fwschneider at comcast.net>> > Date: December 13, 2008 8:15:01 PM EST> > To: pittsburgh-railways at dementia.org> > Subject: Would Fineview be abandoned today?> >> > Bob Rathke pushed my buttons the other day. I am not willing to > > let something fall by the wayside without trying to come up with a > > decent answer. Attached to this letter is a Microsoft Excel > > spreadsheet that compares 2008 and 1948 Lougee report data for > > weekday passengers in Pittsburgh. The Lougee Report only gives > > annual averages ... for want of a better way to do it, I did not > > adjust seasonally ... I simply assumed that summer and winter were > > the same (they never are) but I assumed that 80% of the riders were > > weekdays (5/7ths of the days is 71 percent ... is 80% a tad low? > > Probably not because a lot of people were still working Saturday > > mornings. It's close.> >> > There is an even bigger problem with making any comparisons and > > that is that the routes in 1948 are far different from most of the > > routes today. Bob Rathke's lines up in Troy Hill or Spring Hill > > or Spring Garden actually go all the way up in the country to Ross > > Garage (Keating) today. The old 8 Perrysville line doesn't stop > > at Keating any more but goes all the way to West View. The old 11 > > East Street goes to Ross Garage Park and Ride. But there is a > > West View Express that uses the I-279 expressway but it only runs > > part-time. So most of the West View riders now go in Perrysville > > Avenue. Down in Manchester, all the routes (17, 18, 19 and 20) > > have been rolled into one line. Fineview has been combined with > > the old Charles Street shuttle. That is only part of how the > > city's route structure has been changed.> >> > Remember 96 East Liberty - 62nd St? Well, guys, it doesn't go to > > 62nd St. anymore. It crosses the Highland Park Bridge and goes up > > to Harmar Garage in O'Hara Township. And remember 94 Aspinwall > > and 95 Butler Street? Well, they don't end there ... they've been > > combined with the old West Penn, or later Community route up the > > valley. 94 now runs to Cheswick. 73 Highland doesn't go > > downtown. There are all sorts of variants of 62 and 63 Trafford > > today.> >> > I gave you a smattering of the changes I had to cope with for the > > last three days in this analysis. If you want to make sense of > > it, you can go on like and pull up all the PAT schedules. They > > all have maps.> >> > Point is guys, is easier to come up with some reasonable number of > > weekday fares in 1948 than it is to allocate the passengers today > > on some comparable route to compare to the old route.> >> > But I've tried.> >> > The important considerations are these:> >> > Allegheny County's population peaked about 1960 at 1.628 million > > and then began to implode. In 2000 the census takers enumerated > > 1.220 million people, a drop of about 400,000 people or 25 percent.> >> > Pittsburgh City had somewhere under 700,000 people at the end of > > World War II. The peak census year was 1950 with 676,806 but a lot > > of suburban homes had already been built between 1945 and 1950. > > In 2000 the census takers counted 334,963 people in Pittsburgh. I > > found one website that suggests that Pittsburgh is reversing the > > trend but I found an even more telling one and that is that > > Pittsburgh School District enrollments have plummeted by one-third > > since the year 2000. Maybe some kids are going to charter schools > > or other private schools but I think this is telling me that the > > general population decline is continuing unabated and that the city > > probably has fewer than 300,000 people today ... down by more than > > 55 percent since 1945.> >> > So what happened to the transit patronage?> >> > The typical bus route today is hauling somewhere between -75% and > > -95% of the passengers that were on it in 1948. And 1948 already > > represented a stinging drop from 1945 because we had almost caught > > up to the demand for new motor cars. The worst lines of all are > > those in the bottom lands --- the mill towns. Route 56B Hazlewood > > is almost identical to the old 55 East Pitsburgh via Homestead and > > 2nd Ave ... it has lost 94.4 percent of the business it had in 1948.> >> > The best routes are the light rail lines, largely because they were > > in neighborhoods that expanded last. The interurbans actually had > > very low patronage; the areas beyond Castle Shannon didn't > > completely fill in with homes until after the Washington and > > Charleroi lines were torn up. Remember my picture of the > > weathered barn under the thunder clouds in the Bill Middleton's > > book The Time of the Trolley? That farm was just north of where > > South Hills Village Mall is sited today. As a result, the rail > > patronage is only 30 percent lower than those routes moved in 1948 > > and most of that probably relates to the inner (abandoned portion) > > of route 38 Mount Lebanon, 49 Beltzhoover and of course to the > > declines in office importance downtown.> >> > Now, how likely would continued operation of routes 21 and 40 be > > other than to a railfan who dreams about it? In the late 1940s > > when General Electric was still trying to push electric vehicles, > > they suggested that you needed enough revenue passengers to fill a > > PCC car every five minutes to make it practical, and that a trolley > > bus worked well in a 5 to 7 minute envelope and beyond that diesels > > would earn you money.> >> > OK ... Lets run the numbers that GE was telling us. A filled PCC > > every five minutes ...> > Base period = 12 times an hour x in or out x 14 hours x 56 people > > = 9,408 people> > Base period in the other direction = 12 times an hour x in or out x > > 14 hours x 25 people = 4,2000 people> > Evening = 6 times an hour x 4 hours x 30 people x 2 directions = > > 1440 people> > Very late evening = 4 times an hour x 2 hours x 30 people x 2 > > directions = 480 people> > Owl service = 4 hours x 1 trip hour x 2 directions x 15 people = > > 120 people> > Rush hours = 4 hours x 12 additional trips an hour x 150 people = > > 7,200 people> > Total = 22848> >> > When Pittsburgh Railways ordered the 1700s, at least routes 55, 56, > > 68, 76, 82, 87, 88 and 94 qualified for reinvestment according to > > the G. E. formula. Today there isn't anything that comes even > > close. The East Busway all-stops local has almost 10,000 riders > > on a weekday and that is heaviest bus route in the system.> >> >> >> > >> > > 
_________________________________________________________________
Suspicious message? There’s an alert for that. 
http://windowslive.com/Explore/hotmail?ocid=TXT_TAGLM_WL_hotmail_acq_broad2_122008