[PRCo] Re: Europe ....

Tue Oct 14 14:50:38 EDT 2008

There was a great show on PBS Harrisburg two days ago, Dennis (and  
all of you).  It addresses a lot of what Dennis said here ... a lot  
of the will we change issue.   I think we will change not because we  
want to or wish to but because we would rather live than die.

The show started with a couple in Riverside County, California who  
were in over their heads ... variable rate mortgage ... gasoline went  
to $5.00 a gallon.   Family had moved in for the great American dream  
of a nice home in the exurbs ...  plenty of room ... commuting to  
work in Los Angeles wasn't expensive with $1.00 a gallon gasoline.    
Then gasoline and mortage each mushroomed by $1,000.  The credit card  
issuer is calling demanding payment.   The mortgage is past due.    
The house across the street has been vacant for two years.   The one  
down the street has been empty for a year.   The one next door will  
be empty tomorrow when the owner moves out.

It also showed a lady explaining how easy it was to commute from  
Fullerton to Pasadena on the train today (as long as the engineer  
isn't sending text messages to kids).   The lady also talks about how  
General Motors tore apart Pacific Electric.   Hey guys ... GM and NCL  
never owned Pacific Electric but they did buy the bus divisions in  
Pasadena and Long Beach from PE after they had aleady been converted  
from local city trolleys to bus by PE ... but it is fun to rewrite  
history to jab the innocent.

Finally it closed with a young couple in one of the new condominiums  
in South Pasadena talking about living with the video store, the drug  
store and the convenience store within walking distance and the light  
rail to downtown Los Angles taking only 20 minutes.

Will that be our future?   For some.   My sister claims that is why  
she lives near Wilkinsburg.   She wants the urban convenience and a  
condo.   She grew up in Penn Hills and later in Lancaster in those  
suburbs.   She rather likes a smaller place.   But she and Don never  
had kids.

Will it be our future?  None of us want to rush out and sell our  
homes now.  We don't want to see our Hummers either.   No one wants  
to buy a used Hummer and a Toyota hybrid isn't going to be discounted  
to get you to take it.   I would like to have something even cheaper  
than my VW Passat (31 mpg tops) but I know it is cheaper in the long  
run to beat the thing to death and then buy something smaller and  
more fuel efficient.

Same with a house.   You don't rush out to sell the house if you are  
75 years old.   Close off the rooms you don't want to heat, insulate  
it a little better, make do if you can.  Stick it to the kids in the  
will.   But I suspect that the large suburban homes will become the  
same drug on the market that older homes in Donora or Monongahela or  
Cheswick represent.   If they are not perfectly maintained, they  
might end up sold for pennies on the dollar for back taxes or the  
city might just bulldoze them down.   There may be a lot of banks and  
mortgage companies (worldwide) that are going to be blistered  for  
having bought mortgages on suburban homes in the U. S.

Where I am, the suburban home has a better chance.   I'm four miles  
from downtown.   Most jobs are within a ten mile circle.   The homes  
will not drop in value quite as rapidly.

Dennis, however mentioned the Delaware Water Gap region.   For a  
number of years people drove over I-80 from their into New York every  
day.   Jim Henwood, who taught at East Stroudsburg State University,  
hastened to point out that a lot of the New Yorkers moved there  
because the houses were cheap compared to New York.   But, like  
Riverside County, California, if you have a variable rate mortgage  
and were suddenly paying $4 a gallon for gasoline to get to New York  
(and now if you find yourself among those laid off from that job in  
New York), that nice suburban home that is now worth $150,000 and was  
mortgaged for $250,000 has made a real mess out of your life.

We are stuck paying for the mistakes of others.   Dennis is correct.

But we are also "the others."   We are a government "of the people,  
by the people, and for the people" and if our politicians are telling  
us something that doesn't make sense or if the mortgage deal you got  
sounds too good, guess what ... you are probably eventually going to  
be screwed.    Happy election day!!!!!!

On Oct 14, 2008, at 10:25 AM, Dennis F. Cramer wrote:

> Europe has much better rail systems because they have managed to  
> keep their
> systems though constant upgrades over the past century, plus they have
> relatively high population densities in a much smaller area.  Fuel  
> prices
> have always been higher and the Europeans have a much greater sense of
> history;  they do not tear something down just to build something  
> else in
> the same place, they tend to find ways to reuse structures.
> Will we ever return to what they have, I highly doubt it.  We will  
> never
> have the tax dollars to do it and there is just too much open space  
> with
> little population density.  We love our cars too much.
>
> Mass transit works on the east coast because of the ratio of people to
> space, but look at the vast number of commuters who still insist upon
> driving great distances just to get to work.  The Delaware Water  
> Gap region
> is home to many New York workers and they drive the I-80 corridor  
> every day.
>
>
>
>
>
> http://www.time.com/time/covers/20061030/where_we_live/
>
> http://www.census.gov/popest/gallery/maps/
>
>
> We all know there is a lot of nothing out there.  More people live  
> in the
> metro Harrisburg area than all of the state of Wyoming.
>
> How long will it take us to understand?  We had our first energy  
> crisis in
> 1972-73 and we have done little to fix it.  I noticed relatively  
> fewer huge
> SUVs on the road this summer and now that prices are going down,  
> sales will
> go up.  Detroit is so far behind, I do not think they will ever get  
> it.
>
> The news says the economy is in the tank, but cell phones, PDA's  
> and other
> electronics seem to be everywhere.  I had 7th grade students with over
> $100.00 a month cell phone bills!  Let's keep the economy rolling  
> by using
> those credit cards.  Uncle Sam (or insert country here) will bail  
> us out.
>
> We are stuck paying for others mistakes and reluctance to change.
>
> Two things about change:
>
> Change is inevitable-----People resist change!
>
>
> Dennis F. Cramer
>       Trombone
>
>
>
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