[PRCo] Cleveland numbers

[Fred Schneider]

The positive numbers are in the western and southwestern cities.    Los Angeles has more rail riders today than Pacific Electric had in their 1923 peak.



On Nov 26, 2013, at 6:18 AM, PC wrote:

> ..........><http://mailman.dementix.org/pipermail/pittsburgh-railways/2013-November/032450.html>
> ..........>from Fred Schneider fwschneider at comcast.net
> ..........>Sun Nov 24 11:32:53 EST 2013
> 
> ..........>Do not know where you find positive Cleveland numbers…..  
> 
> The above is your original question isn't it.  You could not find positive Cleveland Numbers.  I answered that question didn't I.
>  Positive Cleveland numbers were provided.  Now all this below.......
> You seem disappointed that ridership is rising--transit ridership, trolley, tram, bus--interests of people on this list.
> How is it possible to please you?
> 
> To address Cleveland ridership one observes the trend is sloping downward with occasional rises above and dips below
> this trendline.  This is very openly noticed and admitted, along with the following:
> 1-birds are hatched, birds grow, birds live, birds grow old, birds die.
> 2-animals are born, animals grow, animals live, animals grow old, animals die.
> 3-plants sprout, plants grow, plants live, plants grow old, plants die.
> 4-People are born, people grow, people live, people grow old, people die.
> 5-a business is formed, the business grows, the business thrives, the business grows old, the business dies.
> 6-industries form, industries grow, industries thrive, industries grows old, industries die.
> 7-etc.
> 8-Everything has its day in the sun [then trundles into the mists of history.]  Vanity vanity; all is vanity.  King Solomon
> 
> Nothing lasts forever does it.  Nothing is all inclusive isn't it.
> 
> But if it makes you happy:
> 
> People are falling off transit!  People are falling off transit!
> The sky is falling!  The sky is falling!
> Woe is mankind.  Woe is mankind.
> The end is here.  The end is here.
> 
> sighhh.
> 
> 
> Pc
> 
> 
> 
> --------------------------------------------
> On Sun, 11/24/13, Fred Schneider <fwschneider at comcast.net> wrote:
> 
> Subject: [PRCo] Cleveland numbers
> To: "Western PA Trolley discussion" <pittsburgh-railways at mailman.dementix.org>
> Date: Sunday, November 24, 2013, 4:14 PM
> 
> Most agencies in industrial areas had
> increases in the last three years because we were coming out
> of the recession.   Of course if you only
> look at the last three years, then you miss the large drop
> in riding at the beginning of the recession.  
> 
> Cleveland had a drop of perhaps 12 million the year going
> into the 2010 recession but it appears to be masked by a
> series break in the counts between 2005 and
> 2006.   A series break is a statistical term
> when something happens to screw up the
> data.   The information was not sent to APTA
> for 2006 leading me to suspect that perhaps the guy or gal
> who was crunching the numbers in 2004 retired and the new
> person didn't understand how to do it the same way and took
> several years to get his or her act
> together.   Then in 2008, Cleveland sent in
> data for both 2006 and 2007.  Those 66 and 60 million
> numbers in 2006 and 2007 look rather fishy.   
> S--t happens. 
> 
> The true numbers are probably more like a drop to about 52
> or 53 million riders in the 2000-2001 recession, then back
> up to around 57 million through most of the early 200s until
> we hit the big recession and then down to 44
> million.   
> 
> Here are the total Cleveland numbers (Bus, Rapid, Light Rail
> and Demand Responsive) since 1995 by year from the APTA
> website.
> 
> 1995:  58.265 million     Cleveland
> city population around 492,000.  
> 1996: 58.736 million
> 1997: 60.892 million
> 1998: 60.557 million
> 1999: 59.300 million
> 2000: 59.116 million     2000-2001
> Recession    Cleveland city population 2000 census
> 478,403
> 2001: 58.128 million     Unemployed in
> Cleveland number around 45,000.
> 2002: 52.626 million
> 2003: 53.446 million     Unemployed in
> Cleveland area top 60,000
> 2004: 55.419 million
> 2005: 57.026 million
> 2006: 66,602 million   Average unemployed in
> Cleveland about 62,000
> 2007: 60,025 million   Average unemployed in
> Cleveland region around 67,000
> 2008: 57,287 million   2008-2009
> recession    Average unemployment in Cleveland
> around 72,000.  
> 2009: 49,706 million   Unemployment over
> 80,000 people in Cleveland
> 2010: 44.592 million   Average unemployed in
> Cleveland between 95,000 and 100,000.  City population
> 396,815.   
> 2011: 46.175 million   Average unemployed in
> Cleveland about 82,000.
> 2012: 48.152 million   Unemployment in
> Cleveland in the high 70,000 range.   
> 2012: looks like a 1/3 of 1% increase
> 
>     http://www.deptofnumbers.com/unemployment/ohio/cleveland/
> 
> Phillip, I trust some agency numbers more than
> others.   Houston, for example, counts light
> rail passengers as they walk through a light beam in the car
> doorway.   No matter how they pay their fare
> … pass, cash fare, or simply sneak on … they are
> counted.   PATCO is probably fairly reliable
> because every rider has a magnetically encoded ticket and
> they are counted going through the fare gates.
> 
> In addition, some counts are just plain lies because the
> agencies are trying to prove to politicians that they are
> worth bigger subsidies.   Some are accidental
> lies.   Some are misunderstandings of
> procedures.   Some are done by clerks who
> don't give a rat's ass.  Some are
> excellent.   
> 
> But, except for the apparent break in the numbers in 2006
> and 2007, I have no reason to suspect the continuity of the
> Cleveland numbers because they mirror what is happening in
> the economy and with the local population.
> 
> 
> 
> 
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