[PRCo] Cleveland numbers

[PC]

..........><http://mailman.dementix.org/pipermail/pittsburgh-railways/2013-November/032450.html>
..........>from Fred Schneider fwschneider at comcast.net
..........>Sun Nov 24 11:32:53 EST 2013

..........>Do not know where you find positive Cleveland numbers…..  

The above is your original question isn't it.  You could not find positive Cleveland Numbers.  I answered that question didn't I.
  Positive Cleveland numbers were provided.  Now all this below.......
You seem disappointed that ridership is rising--transit ridership, trolley, tram, bus--interests of people on this list.
How is it possible to please you?

To address Cleveland ridership one observes the trend is sloping downward with occasional rises above and dips below
this trendline.  This is very openly noticed and admitted, along with the following:
1-birds are hatched, birds grow, birds live, birds grow old, birds die.
2-animals are born, animals grow, animals live, animals grow old, animals die.
3-plants sprout, plants grow, plants live, plants grow old, plants die.
4-People are born, people grow, people live, people grow old, people die.
5-a business is formed, the business grows, the business thrives, the business grows old, the business dies.
6-industries form, industries grow, industries thrive, industries grows old, industries die.
7-etc.
8-Everything has its day in the sun [then trundles into the mists of history.]  Vanity vanity; all is vanity.  King Solomon

Nothing lasts forever does it.  Nothing is all inclusive isn't it.

But if it makes you happy:

People are falling off transit!  People are falling off transit!
The sky is falling!  The sky is falling!
Woe is mankind.  Woe is mankind.
The end is here.  The end is here.

sighhh.


Pc



--------------------------------------------
On Sun, 11/24/13, Fred Schneider <fwschneider at comcast.net> wrote:

 Subject: [PRCo] Cleveland numbers
 To: "Western PA Trolley discussion" <pittsburgh-railways at mailman.dementix.org>
 Date: Sunday, November 24, 2013, 4:14 PM
 
 Most agencies in industrial areas had
 increases in the last three years because we were coming out
 of the recession.   Of course if you only
 look at the last three years, then you miss the large drop
 in riding at the beginning of the recession.  
 
 Cleveland had a drop of perhaps 12 million the year going
 into the 2010 recession but it appears to be masked by a
 series break in the counts between 2005 and
 2006.   A series break is a statistical term
 when something happens to screw up the
 data.   The information was not sent to APTA
 for 2006 leading me to suspect that perhaps the guy or gal
 who was crunching the numbers in 2004 retired and the new
 person didn't understand how to do it the same way and took
 several years to get his or her act
 together.   Then in 2008, Cleveland sent in
 data for both 2006 and 2007.  Those 66 and 60 million
 numbers in 2006 and 2007 look rather fishy.   
 S--t happens. 
 
 The true numbers are probably more like a drop to about 52
 or 53 million riders in the 2000-2001 recession, then back
 up to around 57 million through most of the early 200s until
 we hit the big recession and then down to 44
 million.   
 
 Here are the total Cleveland numbers (Bus, Rapid, Light Rail
 and Demand Responsive) since 1995 by year from the APTA
 website.
 
 1995:  58.265 million     Cleveland
 city population around 492,000.  
 1996: 58.736 million
 1997: 60.892 million
 1998: 60.557 million
 1999: 59.300 million
 2000: 59.116 million     2000-2001
 Recession    Cleveland city population 2000 census
 478,403
 2001: 58.128 million     Unemployed in
 Cleveland number around 45,000.
 2002: 52.626 million
 2003: 53.446 million     Unemployed in
 Cleveland area top 60,000
 2004: 55.419 million
 2005: 57.026 million
 2006: 66,602 million   Average unemployed in
 Cleveland about 62,000
 2007: 60,025 million   Average unemployed in
 Cleveland region around 67,000
 2008: 57,287 million   2008-2009
 recession    Average unemployment in Cleveland
 around 72,000.  
 2009: 49,706 million   Unemployment over
 80,000 people in Cleveland
 2010: 44.592 million   Average unemployed in
 Cleveland between 95,000 and 100,000.  City population
 396,815.   
 2011: 46.175 million   Average unemployed in
 Cleveland about 82,000.
 2012: 48.152 million   Unemployment in
 Cleveland in the high 70,000 range.   
 2012: looks like a 1/3 of 1% increase
 
     http://www.deptofnumbers.com/unemployment/ohio/cleveland/
 
 Phillip, I trust some agency numbers more than
 others.   Houston, for example, counts light
 rail passengers as they walk through a light beam in the car
 doorway.   No matter how they pay their fare
 … pass, cash fare, or simply sneak on … they are
 counted.   PATCO is probably fairly reliable
 because every rider has a magnetically encoded ticket and
 they are counted going through the fare gates.
 
 In addition, some counts are just plain lies because the
 agencies are trying to prove to politicians that they are
 worth bigger subsidies.   Some are accidental
 lies.   Some are misunderstandings of
 procedures.   Some are done by clerks who
 don't give a rat's ass.  Some are
 excellent.   
 
 But, except for the apparent break in the numbers in 2006
 and 2007, I have no reason to suspect the continuity of the
 Cleveland numbers because they mirror what is happening in
 the economy and with the local population.