[PRCo] Cleveland numbers
Fred Schneider
fwschneider at comcast.net
Tue Nov 26 11:46:52 EST 2013
Ray:
Here is a chart that was in our local newspaper several months ago.
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What this does not tell us is what the universe is, only that the number of 16 and 17 year olds in Pennsylvania without drivers licenses has dropped from 154,000 in 1999 to 79,000 in 2012. So did the population of teens also drop? Probably. But not that much.
>From 2000 to 2010 the number of 5 to 17 year olds in the state dropped by 131,800. We do not know if the drop is proportional in all age groups. We do know the population in this state is aging. But we also know those under age 4 also grew. We can make an assumption that some of the change is due to declines in population in the 16-17 age group.
http://censusviewer.com/state/PA
The only teen I know is the one next door. He got his learner's permit over a year ago but never bothered to take the test. Seems perfectly happy to have his girl friend chauffeuring him around in her BMW. I think the permit expired because I don't even see him driving under adult supervision any longer.
It is a different world today. The kids don't learn on empty roads, they learn to drive in traffic jams. It isn't fun like it was in our youth.
On Nov 26, 2013, at 11:15 AM, Lattner, Raymond wrote:
> Who are these "younger people" that you speak of that do not want to drive by choice? I can tell you
> That in my world both my son and daughter could think of nothing but the day they could obtain their
> Learners permit to drive. Ditto for buying their own cars. This was true of all their friends also.
>
> Take public transit when they could drive themselves, NEVER.
>
> Disclaimer. This was meant in a humorous way and not to criticize your comments.
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: pittsburgh-railways-bounces at mailman.dementix.org [mailto:pittsburgh-railways-bounces at mailman.dementix.org] On Behalf Of John Swindler
> Sent: Tuesday, November 26, 2013 11:04 AM
> To: Western PA Trolley discussion
> Subject: Re: [PRCo] Cleveland numbers
>
>
>
> Transit ridership is rising for several reasons. One surprise was that younger people don't think the same way as us "old geezer" generation. They are NOT as enamored by autos. Not massive numbers of young people - just a couple percentage points. Negligible effect on highways, but significant impact on transit ridership. This comment was from Amtrak - they are finding young people not only without cars, but without drivers license - not by circumstances, but by choice.
>
> Also, never realized that Amtrak handles four oil trains a day to a Delaware refinery. Amtrak admits they never saw (this traffic) coming.
>
> And we should all be aware that VRE exists. I thought it was just a couple daily commuter trains from Virginia into Washington. Didn't realize that it was 30 daily trains. Busiest station?? If assumed it was Union Station, would be wrong. It's L'Enfant Plaza. VRE is currently at capacity and has more cars on-order. Also negotiating with railroads for extensions to both lines.
>
> MARC ridership was around 18,000 in 1997. Currently around 36,000 riders. It's seen a 3.5% average annual growth over past 15 years.
>
>
>
>> From: fwschneider at comcast.net
>> Date: Tue, 26 Nov 2013 10:25:48 -0500
>> To: pittsburgh-railways at mailman.dementix.org
>> Subject: Re: [PRCo] Cleveland numbers
>>
>> The positive numbers are in the western and southwestern cities. Los Angeles has more rail riders today than Pacific Electric had in their 1923 peak.
>>
>>
>>
>> On Nov 26, 2013, at 6:18 AM, PC wrote:
>>
>>> ..........><http://mailman.dementix.org/pipermail/pittsburgh-railway
>>> s/2013-November/032450.html> ..........>from Fred Schneider
>>> fwschneider at comcast.net ..........>Sun Nov 24 11:32:53 EST 2013
>>>
>>> ..........>Do not know where you find positive Cleveland numbers.....
>>>
>>> The above is your original question isn't it. You could not find positive Cleveland Numbers. I answered that question didn't I.
>>> Positive Cleveland numbers were provided. Now all this below.......
>>> You seem disappointed that ridership is rising--transit ridership, trolley, tram, bus--interests of people on this list.
>>> How is it possible to please you?
>>>
>>> To address Cleveland ridership one observes the trend is sloping
>>> downward with occasional rises above and dips below this trendline. This is very openly noticed and admitted, along with the following:
>>> 1-birds are hatched, birds grow, birds live, birds grow old, birds die.
>>> 2-animals are born, animals grow, animals live, animals grow old, animals die.
>>> 3-plants sprout, plants grow, plants live, plants grow old, plants die.
>>> 4-People are born, people grow, people live, people grow old, people die.
>>> 5-a business is formed, the business grows, the business thrives, the business grows old, the business dies.
>>> 6-industries form, industries grow, industries thrive, industries grows old, industries die.
>>> 7-etc.
>>> 8-Everything has its day in the sun [then trundles into the mists of
>>> history.] Vanity vanity; all is vanity. King Solomon
>>>
>>> Nothing lasts forever does it. Nothing is all inclusive isn't it.
>>>
>>> But if it makes you happy:
>>>
>>> People are falling off transit! People are falling off transit!
>>> The sky is falling! The sky is falling!
>>> Woe is mankind. Woe is mankind.
>>> The end is here. The end is here.
>>>
>>> sighhh.
>>>
>>>
>>> Pc
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> --------------------------------------------
>>> On Sun, 11/24/13, Fred Schneider <fwschneider at comcast.net> wrote:
>>>
>>> Subject: [PRCo] Cleveland numbers
>>> To: "Western PA Trolley discussion"
>>> <pittsburgh-railways at mailman.dementix.org>
>>> Date: Sunday, November 24, 2013, 4:14 PM
>>>
>>> Most agencies in industrial areas had increases in the last three
>>> years because we were coming out
>>> of the recession. Of course if you only
>>> look at the last three years, then you miss the large drop in riding
>>> at the beginning of the recession.
>>>
>>> Cleveland had a drop of perhaps 12 million the year going into the
>>> 2010 recession but it appears to be masked by a series break in the
>>> counts between 2005 and
>>> 2006. A series break is a statistical term
>>> when something happens to screw up the
>>> data. The information was not sent to APTA
>>> for 2006 leading me to suspect that perhaps the guy or gal who was
>>> crunching the numbers in 2004 retired and the new person didn't
>>> understand how to do it the same way and took several years to get
>>> his or her act
>>> together. Then in 2008, Cleveland sent in
>>> data for both 2006 and 2007. Those 66 and 60 million
>>> numbers in 2006 and 2007 look rather fishy.
>>> S--t happens.
>>>
>>> The true numbers are probably more like a drop to about 52 or 53
>>> million riders in the 2000-2001 recession, then back up to around 57
>>> million through most of the early 200s until we hit the big
>>> recession and then down to 44
>>> million.
>>>
>>> Here are the total Cleveland numbers (Bus, Rapid, Light Rail and
>>> Demand Responsive) since 1995 by year from the APTA website.
>>>
>>> 1995: 58.265 million Cleveland
>>> city population around 492,000.
>>> 1996: 58.736 million
>>> 1997: 60.892 million
>>> 1998: 60.557 million
>>> 1999: 59.300 million
>>> 2000: 59.116 million 2000-2001
>>> Recession Cleveland city population 2000 census
>>> 478,403
>>> 2001: 58.128 million Unemployed in
>>> Cleveland number around 45,000.
>>> 2002: 52.626 million
>>> 2003: 53.446 million Unemployed in
>>> Cleveland area top 60,000
>>> 2004: 55.419 million
>>> 2005: 57.026 million
>>> 2006: 66,602 million Average unemployed in
>>> Cleveland about 62,000
>>> 2007: 60,025 million Average unemployed in
>>> Cleveland region around 67,000
>>> 2008: 57,287 million 2008-2009
>>> recession Average unemployment in Cleveland
>>> around 72,000.
>>> 2009: 49,706 million Unemployment over
>>> 80,000 people in Cleveland
>>> 2010: 44.592 million Average unemployed in
>>> Cleveland between 95,000 and 100,000. City population
>>> 396,815.
>>> 2011: 46.175 million Average unemployed in
>>> Cleveland about 82,000.
>>> 2012: 48.152 million Unemployment in
>>> Cleveland in the high 70,000 range.
>>> 2012: looks like a 1/3 of 1% increase
>>>
>>> http://www.deptofnumbers.com/unemployment/ohio/cleveland/
>>>
>>> Phillip, I trust some agency numbers more than
>>> others. Houston, for example, counts light
>>> rail passengers as they walk through a light beam in the car
>>> doorway. No matter how they pay their fare
>>> ... pass, cash fare, or simply sneak on ... they are
>>> counted. PATCO is probably fairly reliable
>>> because every rider has a magnetically encoded ticket and they are
>>> counted going through the fare gates.
>>>
>>> In addition, some counts are just plain lies because the agencies
>>> are trying to prove to politicians that they are
>>> worth bigger subsidies. Some are accidental
>>> lies. Some are misunderstandings of
>>> procedures. Some are done by clerks who
>>> don't give a rat's ass. Some are
>>> excellent.
>>>
>>> But, except for the apparent break in the numbers in 2006 and 2007,
>>> I have no reason to suspect the continuity of the Cleveland numbers
>>> because they mirror what is happening in the economy and with the
>>> local population.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> _______________________________________________
>>> Pittsburgh-railways mailing list
>>> Pittsburgh-railways at mailman.dementix.org
>>> https://mailman.dementix.org/mailman/listinfo/pittsburgh-railways
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
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